Sometimes it’s best not to argue with the cosmic order of football: you just have to shrug your shoulders and move on. Because if you over-think things, really analyse the nuts and bolts of the beautiful game, you probably wouldn’t sleep for days on end.
There was a certain amount of unease last week for this column when our acca was downed by Chesterfield; a side in the relegation zone in League 2 who had lost five of their last six matches. Naturally then, as soon as we opposed them they took down top-of-the-table Luton Town 2-0.
Like we say, it’s best not to think about it too much for fear of insanity!
The only option that punters have, really, is to get back in the saddle. Our ability to be scuppered by anomalous results in the past few weeks has known no bounds, but our luck has to change soon….doesn’t it!?
Anyway, here are this week’s football accumulator betting tips:
- Brighton vs Chelsea: Under 2.5 Goals (7/10)
- Oxford United vs Bury: Oxford Draw No Bet (21/50)
- Espanyol vs Sevilla: Espanyol/Draw Double Chance (1/2)
- Villarreal vs Levante: Under 3.5 Goals (1/3)
- Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: Freiburg/Draw Double Chance (3/4)
- Acca Odds: 7.21/1
Brighton vs Chelsea: Under 2.5 Goals
The Seagulls have conceded just 14 goals in 11 starts at the AMEX Stadium this term, and that is testament to the conservative policies put in place by manager Chris Hughton.
It’s perhaps no surprise then that just one of their last eight outings has breached the 2.5 goal line, and as if to further evidence that both teams to score is a bet that would have landed in just three of Brighton’s last thirteen matches.
We know that Chelsea are having problems putting the ball in the net at the moment, with Alvaro Morata woefully short of confidence. The dilemma for boss Antonio Conte this weekend is that he will have one eye on next Wednesday’s Carabao Cup semi final with Arsenal – will he rest Eden Hazard against Brighton on Saturday?
Oxford United vs Bury: Oxford Draw No Bet
Oxford are roughly even money to beat a Bury side that has lost their last seven games and not scored since November – some 720 minutes of football ago!
Oxford, meanwhile, are a frustratingly unpredictable bunch but they have won their last two matches at home, and to be fair they do possess the goal power to beat anyone in League 1.
That said, judging by Bury’s hopelessness in front of goal they may only need to find the net once to claim all three points!
Espanyol vs Sevilla: Espanyol/Draw Double Chance
Sevilla’s awful away record is just one of those curiosities of football. They didn’t win a single game on the road during the 2016/17 campaign, and their formline this term (W3 D0 L7) hardly suggests a revival on that front.
Can we rely on Espanyol to get the positive result we need? Well, they’re not bad at home to be fair (W5 D2 L3), and in their last pair of matches on their own patch they have beaten Atletico Madrid and drawn with Athletic Bilbao, so we’re happy enough to back them given just how bad Sevilla are on their travels.
Villarreal vs Levante: Under 3.5 Goals
In late November and into early December, Villarreal lost three games on the spin – conceding eight goals in the process. It’s a mini slump that may just have transformed their season.
Because since then the Yellow Submarine have won 1-0 on three occasions and drawn 1-1 as well; an indication of a more defence-minded strategy.
That decision was probably aided by the sale of star striker Cedric Bakambu to China, and with his frontline partner Carlos Bacca suspended for this game against Levante that goal-less trend looks set to continue.
If you discount the 0-3 defeat to Barcelona at the Nou Camp, the visitors’ most recent La Liga results read 0-0, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0 and 0-1….this one hardly screams goals, does it.
Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: Freiburg/Draw Double Chance
After a hapless start to the season, Freiburg are rallying well after going on a run of six unbeaten (W3 D3 L0). It is easy to forget that they finished seventh in Bundesliga last season, and are a much better side than their current placing of fourteenth suggests.
Leipzig’s away form of W3 D2 L4 is hardly suggestive of a side overly comfortable on the road, and their recent form (W1 D2 L2) hints at the inconsistency the franchise has faced this term.
Their task at Freiburg will not be aided by the absence of Naby Keita through suspension, as well as the loss of injured trio Bruma, Marcel Sabitzer and Emil Forsberg.