We are in the midst of that slightly chaotic part of the football season now where form, rationality and common sense seem to go out of the window.
The would be our explanation for only landing 2/5 legs in our football accumulator tips last week, with in-form Charlton going down on home soil against a Scunthorpe side that had won once since New Year’s Day, and Mansfield claiming their first win since February at Chesterfield.
Maybe for the next few weeks we should throw caution to the wind and take a few more risks with our acca…. now certainly seems to be the best time to do just that!
|Arsenal vs West Ham||Arsenal to Win||1/2|
|Stoke City vs Burnley||Burnley/Draw Double Chance||4/6|
|AFC Wimbledon vs Oldham Athletic||Wimbledon Draw No Bet||4/6|
|Metz vs Caen||Metz/Draw Double Chance||21/50|
|Hamburg vs Freiburg||Hamburg Draw No Bet||1/2|
|Five-Fold Acca Odds||7.87/1|
Arsenal vs West Ham: Arsenal to Win
If we airbrush over the 0-3 defeat to Manchester City, Arsenal have won their last five matches at the Emirates Stadium and scored 18 goals in the process.
All season long, the Gunners have followed up a dismal away showing with a return to form on home soil next time out: for every defeat at Bournemouth there’s been a hammering of Crystal Palace a week later, and a similar pattern played out with a reverse at Swansea followed by a 5-1 shellacking of Everton. It’s just an odd habit Arsene Wenger’s men have gotten into.
So we can ignore the 1-2 defeat to Newcastle last week, who themselves produced a spirited and determined effort.
The form guide shows West Ham unbeaten in three, but closer dissection reveals a win over a dire Southampton outfit, a point against a Chelsea outfit simply not at the races and Monday’s punishing – for the viewing public, anyway – 1-1 draw with Stoke.
Instinct tells us that Arsenal have a better chance of winning this match than their odds of 1/2 imply.
Stoke City vs Burnley: Burnley/Draw Double Chance
It is, often, very difficult to make money out of the bookmakers. They employ some of the sharpest analytical minds on their trading desk to ensure their liabilities are covered by barely viable prices.
And then an opportunity like this comes along.
The bookies are offering odds of 4/6 that Burnley will win or draw against Stoke on Sunday. That’s the same Stoke side that has won once since December 23rd – an inordinately long run of 16 matches.
That is also the same Burnley outfit that has won five on the bounce, and who have lost just 4/17 on the road this term.
Sometimes we perceive odds as great value because instinct tell us so; other times, the evidence is there in cold, hard facts.
AFC Wimbledon vs Oldham Athletic: Wimbledon Draw No Bet
If you watched the Southampton vs Chelsea game on Saturday, you would have seen the Saints dominate the early going and take a 2-0 lead, before the timely introduction of Olivier Giroud changed the game in the Blues’ favour.
Something very similar happened at the Bescot Stadium, where Walsall took a 2-0 lead before Wimbledon boss Neal Ardley introduced Jimmy Abdou at half-time. After the break the Dons got on top in the midfield battle and slowly came back into the game, levelling at 2-2 before the ultimate footballing aphrodisiac – a last minute winner – from Dean Parrett.
Wimbledon will be full of beans this week then, and on home soil they will fancy their chances against an Oldham outfit who have won just three of their 21 away matches this term.
Metz vs Caen: Metz/Draw Double Chance
Caen, Ligue 1’s lowest scorers, have now started to concede goals at an alarming rate, and they are at risk of being sucked into the relegation battle.
They’ve lost four on the spin and conceded three in a trio of those matches; not ideal for a side that has scored just seven away goals all season!
Metz may be bottom of the table, but they aren’t giving up without a fight: a formline of W1 D3 L2 shows a side trying to grind out results, and it’s worth noting that those two defeats came against champions PSG and the rampant Lyon.
They beat a decent Rennes side last time out, and so despite their lowly league position Metz will be hoping for a positive result here.
Hamburg vs Freiburg: Hamburg Draw No Bet
This is the proverbial relegation six-pointer in the German Bundesliga, and at the moment it is Hamburg who are showing more signs of life.
In their penultimate start they beat a decent Schalke side 3-2, and while there is little to write home about as far as their season is concerned, the fact they have conceded fewer goals at home than Dortmund and RB Leipzig is a surprising yet absolutely futile fact.
But a solidity on home soil should serve them well here against a Freiburg outfit that has won just 1/15 on the road this term and scored just once in their last six outings.