It was another week of frustration for this column last time out, and perhaps a case of the one that got away.
Three selections landed, one is still to run and the fifth – Toronto/Draw Double Chance at Orlando – was downed despite the Canadians dominating a number of key statistical metrics.
But then, the only stat that really matters is that scoreline and the three points to add to your tally.
Punters are in that purgatory state between the European football seasons at the moment, but even so we feel that we are edging towards another decent acca winner given our form of late.
As such, here are our football accumulator betting tips for the week ahead:
|KS Luftetari vs Ventspils||Ventspils/Draw Double Chance||4/9|
|Santos vs Palmeiras||Santos/Draw Double Chance||8/15|
|Atlanta United vs DC United||DC United +2.50 Asian Handicap||4/11|
|New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution||New York RB to Win||2/5|
|Sirius vs IFK Gothenburg||IFK Gothenburg Draw No Bet||8/11|
|Five-Fold Acca Odds||6.09/1|
KS Luftetari vs Ventspils: Ventspils/Draw Double Chance
If you are looking for a decent odds-against winner on Thursday, Ventspils to take the spoils from this Europa League qualifying match at Luftetari looks a great shout at 6/5.
As it is, we’re opting for a lower risk strategy of the Double Chance in favour of the Latvians.
They won the first leg of this tie 5-0, and not just that they were 5-0 up at half-time. If they hadn’t taken their foot off the gas in the second period, what could the scoreline have been?
There was a clear gulf in quality, and also the fact that Ventspils are well into their league campaign – Luftetari are in pre-season still – was evident.
The money attached to qualifying for the Europa League is key for clubs like Ventspils, so don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas here.
Santos vs Palmeiras: Santos/Draw Double Chance
There were 12 gameweeks in the Brazilian Serie A prior to their break, and in those an incredible 80% ended in a home win or draw.
And so we can have plenty of confidence in Santos here, whose Expected Goals data indicated an ‘unlucky’ side who were playing much better than their league position suggests.
Only two teams have scored more home goals than Santos, and that is an excellent foundation for a positive result here.
Palmeiras only won two of six prior to the mid-season break, and if that malaise continues this week you would expect the hosts to get the result they – and we – want.
Atlanta United vs DC United: DC United +2.50 Asian Handicap
We’ve written extensively about the importance of open play goals in analysing a football team’s success. Goal tallies can be inflated by penalty and/or set piece strikes, which tend to give a distorted view of a side’s ability; as England fans have found to their cost recently following their heroes at the World Cup.
Atlanta top the Supporter’s Shield table over in the MLS, and yet their haul of open play goals is just 22 in 21 games; the ninth best total in America.
And they also rely heavily on hitman Josef Martinez, who has notched 44% of their goals.
So what are we saying? There’s every chance that Atlanta will win this game in front of their fervent home supporters, with attendances regularly exceeding 70,000! But we’re also more than happy to have DC United on side with a two-goal headstart.
They have played 12 of their 15 MLS matches this term away from home due to the delayed opening of their Audi Field home, and so they are no strangers to life on the road.
The addition of Wayne Rooney, who still has a few good years ahead of him in the MLS, is also a major bonus.
DC have scored just two open plays goals less than Atlanta this season, and you suspect they can give their hosts – who have won just two of their last six on home soil – a decent run for their money.
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution: NYRB to Win
Just 72 hours will separate New England Revolution’s game on Wednesday against Minnesota and their Sunday clash with the New York Red Bulls, and the squad will spend roughly five of those on an aeroplane commuting to the Big Apple!
Little facts like that help to explain just why the home field advantage in the MLS is so strong, and an in-form Red Bulls’ will surely prove too strong for their opponents here.
The New York outfit have won four of their last five matches, are W7 D1 L1 on home soil this term and have scored 25 goals from open play; the fifth best total in the competition.
New England’s away record tells a story – W1 D4 L2 – of a side that is hard to beat, but the Red Bulls are in fine fettle and should have no major problems.
Sirius vs IFK Gothenburg: Gothenburg Draw No Bet
There’s no place like home, so the old saying goes, although that’s no crumb of comfort for Swedish Superettan outfit Sirius.
Their formline on home soil – W0 D2 L5 – is self explanatory, as is the fact that they are conceding at a rate of nearly three goals per game in front of their own fans.
An overall run of results that features 1-5, 2-5, 0-4 and 1-3 defeats within their last four is indicative of the basement side’s struggles.
Gothenburg had been on a poor run of form lately, but last week’s 2-0 win over Orebro should give hem the confidence needed to convert this weekend.