Football Accumulator Tips: 9th – 10th February 2019

Accumulator TipsIt was a fair-to-middling effort last time out, with two selections landing, two missing the mark and the fifth seeing our stake pushed back to us.

You sense that the football season – certainly in England – is just starting to creak into the end game, even though there are weeks left of the campaign.

Some sides look doomed to their fate already, while for others there is silverware to play for and indignity to rally against.

It all makes for fertile ground for our football accumulator betting tips!

Match Recommended Bet Odds
Manchester City vs Chelsea Manchester City to Win 9/20
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford Brentford/Draw Double Chance 4/9
Oxford United vs Sunderland Oxford/Draw Double Chance 1/2
Scunthorpe United vs Accrington Stanley Under 3.5 Goals 1/3
Guingamp vs Lille Lille Draw No Bet 4/7
Five-Fold Acca Odds 5.58/1

Manchester City vs Chelsea: Manchester City to Win

You could certainly make a case which suggests that the bookmakers have over-reacted to Chelsea’s 5-0 hammering of Huddersfield last time out.

The Terriers are terrible, there’s no other word for it, and seem resigned to relegation already.

So we’re not willing to read too much into it, and take that result away from Chelsea’s recent record and you otherwise see heavy defeats to Arsenal (0-2) and Bournemouth (0-4) and a failure to beat Southampton at home. That’s not the formline of an elite outfit.

To see odds of roughly 1/2 on a Manchester City victory is a sight for sore eyes. Yes, they have a midweek engagement to navigate, but Pep Guardiola’s squad is deep and blessed with quality in all positions.

The title challengers have won 12/13 on home soil, with ten of those coming by a margin of two goals or more and five by a three-goal cushion. It’s hard to see this Chelsea side being able to withstand that kind of brilliance.

Nottingham Forest vs Brentford: Brentford/Draw Double Chance

It’s early days, of course, but thus far the goodwill appointment of Martin O’Neill as manager and Roy Keane as his assistant has yet to yield results at Nottingham Forest.

The 3-1 win against Wigan has proven to be anomalous, with three other defeats coming without a goal scored.

The Irish duo are clearly looking to improve from back to front, but a lack of attacking spark could be their downfall this weekend.

And that’s because Brentford have that in spades. Since Thomas Franke switched to a 3-4-3 formation the Bees have been buzzing; unbeaten in their last seven Championship outings, they have won three on the spin and scored 12 in those trio of victories.

Factor in the six goals they put past Barnet in 180 minutes of football, and it’s clear that Franke’s decision to stick Maupay, Benrahma and Watkins up front together is paying dividends.

The Bees came from 0-2 down after 10 minutes to beat Blackburn 5-2 last time out, while Forest’s task here will be made all the more difficult by the absence of Jack Colback and Yohan Benalouane due to suspension.

Oxford United vs Sunderland: Oxford/Draw Double Chance

If you’re ever in doubt of the virtues of Expected Goals data, ask yourself this: why are Sunderland 13/8 to beat a side in the relegation zone here?

The answer is simple: Oxford are playing well and have been for a while, and their results – W3 D5 L3 – don’t reflect as such.

But the bookies aren’t daft, and they know that Sunderland have been lucky to take six points recently from four games in which they were not the better outfit.

Indeed, the forced sale of top scorer Josh Maja, who contributed 30% of their goals tally so far, has hit the Black Cats hard.

The purchase of Will Grigg is a shrewd, albeit overprice one, and he will score at this level. But has he had long enough to get used to the way Sunderland go about their business?

Scunthorpe United vs Accrington Stanley: Under 3.5 Goals

It’s been an astounding 500+ footballing minutes since Accrington Stanley last found the net.

Will desperation set in? It’s possible, but with only Wimbledon scoring fewer in League One this term clearly defence-first has been the modus operandi for months now.

Followers of xG data will know that Scunthorpe’s mid-table position is slightly false given that they tend to create few ‘big chances’, and when you add all of this into the melting pot the diagnosis is a low scoring afternoon on the coast.

Guingamp vs Lille: Lille Draw No Bet

Since Christmas, Lille have won four on the spin at a goal difference of +8.

That is indicative of their confidence at present, and really an away trip to bottom-of-the-table Guingamp should hold no fear.

The hosts lost 0-9 to PSG a couple of weeks ago, and while we’re not suggesting that Lille are on the same level as the Parisians it is an indicator of how poor Guingamp are. Their home record – W1 D3 L7 – tells the tale.