The Betting on Boris Johnson’s Brexit

EU and UK Flags on Wall Depicting BrexitFootball fans in the UK are familiar with the concept of a Super Sunday, which is when Sky Sports package together all of the big teams in a mouth-watering set of fixtures throughout the day.

Well, politics will have its own extravaganza this weekend in the form of a Super Saturday: a day in parliament that will determine whether or not Brexit gets sorted once and for all.

You may have seen in the news yesterday that Boris Johnson has secured a withdrawal agreement with the decision-makers of the EU, meaning that Brexit is very much back on the table in time for that October 31 deadline.

However, it’s not just as simple as the prime minister signing some papers and away we go: Boris must first secure the backing of his fellow MPs in a vote in the House of Commons which will take place on Saturday.

If he doesn’t, the reality is that Brexit could once again be delayed to a new law that came into power just a few weeks ago.

There are a couple of different scenarios that could play out from this point, and even the bookies are unsure how the next 48 hours or so will play out.

Let’s take a look at the options:

The UK to Leave the EU by October 31

Brexit Betting Odds

At the time of writing, the bookies believe that we are heading for another Brexit delay, having priced the ‘No’ vote at 4/7 and ‘Yes’ at 5/4.

You might think that now a deal has been agreed, it would be a formality for the prime minister to get it over the line.

However, there are plenty of opponents to his deal in the House, including the rival political parties and former allies the DUP, who are concerned with how the terms of the agreement will affect Northern Ireland.

So, by that token, you can see why it’s an odds-against chance, especially when we factor in that even if UK parliament gives the deal the thumbs up it still has to pass through EU parliament as well.

Will the UK Leave the EU Without a Deal on October 31?

No Deal Brexit Betting Odds

Boris Johnson has reiterated countless times that the UK will leave the EU on October 31 come what may because that was the will of the people, whether a deal had been struck or not.

However, plenty think that was bluster designed to force the EU’s hand – a tactic that appears to have worked, and now that a draft agreement has been confirmed it is more likely that the prime minister will take his time to persuade fellow MPs that this is the right deal for us.

With the new Benn Act meaning that Article 50 will be extended if no deal is signed off by the close of play on October 19, it appears as if Brexit will rumble on for a while longer yet.

House of Commons to Vote Through Withdrawal Agreement on October 19

Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Betting Odds

This is the big one really, and the bookies can’t call it: yes is 8/11, no is 1/1.

As it stands, the deal is unlikely to be signed off on by the DUP and many opposition MPs – Boris needs in excess of 300 yes votes for it to pass first time.

But with room for concessions, including the possibility of a general election in early 2020 as a carrot to lure in Labour and Lib Dem MPs, it is quite possible that by the end of ‘Super Saturday’ we will have seen considerable forward motion towards a resolution of the Brexit debacle.